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QE not weakening the euro enough - Socgen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 19, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Kit Juckes, economist at Societe Generale, explained that while the ECB April bank Lending Survey tells me growth is 'steady as she goes' in Euroland, the February balance of payments data tell me that the ECB is doing a great job of driving foreign money away from European bonds and of driving European money into foreign bonds.

    Key Quotes:

    "If no-one else were involved the Euro would be crashing lower but that's not how 'the forex' works!

    QE and negative rates are driving capital out of the Eurozone.

    The Euro Area's current account in the 12 months to February came in at 3.1% GDP, or EUR 321.5bn. But that isn't as impressive as the net increase of foreign assets by European investors through direct and portfolio investment, or EUR 829bn. Subtract foreign investment into the Euro Area of EUR 261.5bn and you still get a ‘Basic Balance' that is in deficit to the tune of EUR 246bn. February's was the biggest basic deficit since the current BOP series begins.

    To the extent that QE was intended to push capital out of European assets, it's working well - it just isn't weakening the Euro at the moment because the Fed took its foot off the monetary brakes.

    Still, getting European investors to fall in love with foreign assets (especially, foreign bonds) should eventually yield dividends if the ECB maintains its current policy for long enough."
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