RBA’ decision to raise mortgage rates did not negetively impact consumer sentiment

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 3.9% in November. It moved from 97.8 in October to 101.7 in November. It now stands 8.3% higher than in September. This increase in index was registered despite the RBA’ decision to raise mortgage rates for both owner occupiers and investors. Surprisingly, events such as these did not have a negative impact on confidence.

    However, some conflicting movements amongst the components of the Index were noted. The sub-index tracking assessments of ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ fell 2.2% and the sub-index tracking expectations for ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ slumped 9.1%. The increase in mortgage rates probably in resulted in the dip.

    Political events boost confidence

    The boost that the consumer confidence received post the recent political events helped to contain the impact of the double interest rate rise. The confidence of respondents who hold mortgage increased by 4.1%. The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ increased 5.8% while that tracking expectations for ‘economic conditions over the next five years’ soared 24.2%

    The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations rose by 3.3% in November. The index indicates fewer consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead. The Index remains 10.9% below its September level implying a much less pessimistic attitude towards the labour market.

    Consumers to loosen grip on pocket

    Providing a boost to the retailers’ morale, the sub-index tracking views on ‘time to buy a major household item’ lifted 4.8%. A survey conducted to find out how much people would spend for Christmas showed 16.9% people expected to spend more as compared to 12.5 per cent people proclaiming to spend ‘more’ in the earlier surveys; whereas ‘less’ registered 29.6% compared to the average of 34.7%.

    Housing market prospects remain soft

    The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose slightly in November but the 1.4% gain still leaves the index down 12.5% over the last year. There was another sharp fall in house price expectations. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute House Price Expectations Index fell 7.9% to be down 18.7% over the year. Overall, prospects for the housing market remained soft in this survey.

    Following the other major central banks, the RBA opined that considering the domestic and global economic conditions it is best to adopt an accommodative policy. The low inflation environment leaves more room for easing in the coming months.
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