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RBA minutes preview - how will AUD/USD react?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD is currently a fade after a long winning streak of the past several weeks and a recent recovery in commodity prices.

    Can AUD/USD continue recovering along with commodities?

    Whether that can continue is questionable as ahead of the curve when it comes to global economic growth. However, the RBA has maintained a bullish, albeit slightly more cautionary, tone of late and we await today's RBA minutes for an insight to their thinking.

    AUD/USD made a lower low this year, post the Black Monday lows last year when China opened 2016 with a fresh crisis, sending the Aussie to 0.6827 and lowest levels since 2009's financial crisis. Since this sell-off, there has been some adjustment to what is concerning in respect of China and the commodity prices have been able to make a bit of a recovery on a correction that may or more likely not turn into a reversal.

    Is the oil correction done? - BBH

    RBA minutes previewed by Westpac

    Either way, the RBA still prefers the Aussie at lower levels. Analysts at Westpac explained that the minutes from the RBA Board's March meeting are due at 11:30am AEDT/8:30am Sing/HK.

    "The steady hand at 2.0% was accompanied by a reiteration of the lukewarm optimism of Feb: “there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy.” There was little change in the AUD commentary: “The exchange rate has been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook.” What caught market attention though was a tweak in the final sentence, from “Continued low inflation may provide scope for easier policy” to “Continued low inflation would provide scope.” Our economics team suspects this was a slightly firmer easing bias in case of a weak Q4 GDP report. As it turned out of course, the GDP data the next day was much stronger than expected."

    AUD/USD key levels to monitor

    The 0.760 handle is a strong level of resistance as it was the key supporting area a year ago back in Feb 2015. 0.7531 is the pivot and we are some way down on an increasingly looking bearish bias in the pair. We are trading around the 4hr 20 sma at 0.7509 offering some support, but a compelling area of target for the bears is the 200 dma that is at 0.7248 with S3 guarding that level at 0.7339.

    Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price has accelerated its decline after breaking below a now bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators keep heading south, despite being near oversold levels. "In the 4 hours chart, the price is currently extending below its 20 SMA while the RSI heads south around 50 and the Momentum indicator lags, heading north above the 100 level, supporting a limited decline ahead."
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