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RBA minutes preview - what to expect from AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 14, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is set up for the RBA minutes today and the house price index. The major commodity currency recovered on the price of oil rebounding off the lows earlier in the US session, but has been rejected at the 200 SMA on the hourly charts at 0.7266 and is now oscillating at current spot price supported at the 100 SMA.

    The FOMC is the next big thing on the agenda, after the RBA minutes, is a potential rate hike for the first time in nine years by the Fed accompanied by a potentially dovish rhetoric from Yellen that could expose the greenback to the downside given that the hike has been priced in already.

    RBA minutes: AUD too high?

    The general consensus that is mounting is a positive outlook for the Aussie as the RBA remain on hold and money markets are only pricing in a 10-15% chance of a rate cut from the RBA in Feb. While there were no changes to the cash rate in this Dec meeting around, there was some emphasis in the statement to commodities and concerns in respect to mining capex falling, while maintaining the same commentary on the Aussie. However, in the minutes, the RBA minutes may reveal how uncomfortable they are with the exchange rate moving higher in relation to commodity prices that are continuing and have the potential to fall further. The Fed hike might also be something noted in the minutes and expectations for a stronger greenback while at the same time, the jobs data has been supportive of the Aussie for the last number of releases.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, the price recovered above the 200 EMA after a brief decline below it, and is also above a now mild bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators aim higher, but below their mid-lines. "Dips down to 0.7200 should now attract buyers to keep the bullish trend in place, and favor additional gains up to 0.7335 for this Tuesday."


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