RBA minutes preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD is currently trading with a bearish bias within the bulls recovery of 2016 lows, meeting the 100 dma at 0.7143 that is capping the bulls progress. The Aussie is now testing the congestion ahead of 0.7120 support ahead of the RBA's minutes as today's main event in Asia.

    The RBA Feb meeting minutes will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. "The key themes from the Statement on Monetary Policy should be repeated. Note too that we heard from Governor Stevens at the parliamentary testimony last Friday so risks around the minutes should be low," explained analysts at Westpac.

    However, given there was no real market guidance from the RBA Governor's testimony to the Parliament Committee, the minutes will be scrutinized for any hint of bearishness and additional dovishness from the RBA that could end bulls hopes of further upside.

    What to expect in the minutes?

    Stevens recently explained that data is key after the market volatility in 2016, while suggesting that the global recovery is actually better than what markets are making out. At the same time, he isn't ruling out a further fall in the Aussie although he noted that it has adjusted and while there are large amounts of capital outflows in the Yuan, he is not concerned about the depreciation in the renminbi as the outflows reflect policy uncertainty. For sure, inflation is in the lower end of the bracket and there are deflationary risks ahead that will be monitored vs the positive environment in the jobs sector.

    Should this be a non-event today as a result of repetition, later in the week comes with the employment report for Jan and a speech by RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) to the Australian Shareholders Association.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    AUD/USD is struggling with the 100 dma on a recovery after the supply from recent highs of 0.7242. Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is struggling around a still bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned lower around their mid-lines, lacking directional strength at the time being.

    "In the 4 hours chart, however, the technical outlook is more constructive, given that the price is well above a bullish 20 SMA and its 200 EMA, while the technical indicators hold within positive territory."

    On a break to the upside, through R3 at 0.7170, 0.7190 is a key level and the height of recent H&S on the hourly chart. This is guarding the psychological 0.7200 level and 0.7242 2016 recovery high. to the downside, 0.7098 is the pivot ahead of S3 at 0.7066, S2 at 0.7031 and S3 at 0.6999.
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