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RBA minutes preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 19, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD has been some tremendous two-way business at the start of this week. The pair has reached a nine-month high of 0.7758 in a rally from intra-day lows of 0.7642 and is perched better bid ahead of the RBA minutes.

    AUD/USD went from a steady climb last week to Friday's close of 0.7722 before markets opened yesterday and the pair gapped lower to 0.7631 lows on the Doha story. This has all been unwound across the board with a change of sentiment and US oil rallying back above $40 bbl. Meanwhile, we get back to domestics in Australia and how the value of the Aussie could be a negative for the RBA in a low inflationary environment.

    RBA minutes expected to highlight AUD's value

    Analysts at Westpac noted that the RBA minutes will be released at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. "The focus will be on the growth outlook and any further discussion around the AUD. The Apr statement maintained that low inflation still provides “scope for easier policy” but the RBA dropped the neutral language on AUD that was used from Aug 2015 to Mar 2016," adding, "Governor Stevens worried that further AUD gains could “complicate” the adjustment to the end of the mining investment boom."

    Otherwise, we have a speech from Stevens later today in NY, NY (11:30pm Syd) on “Observations on the Current Situation,” that could be another chance for jawboning the currency lower in the current environment.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    AUD/USD is in bullish territory while on the 0.77 handle and probing for offers through the mid point of the handle for the next key target at 0.7801 and R3. On a retest of the downside below the pivot, S3 is located at 0.7636 with the intraday low at 0.7630 and with the 20 dma located at 0.7618 as a key support zone.
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