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RBA rate cut looming after Australia reports weak CPI – Goldman Sachs

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 28, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sachs, suggest that the Australia’s 3Q15 CPI report was unquestionably weak and they believe that the RBA now has little choice but to ease interest rates in November (-25bp).

    Key Quotes

    “The inflation rose by 0.29%qoq, the smallest amount since 3Q1997, and now sits firmly at the bottom of the RBA’s target band. The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, the trimmed mean, expanded 2.1%yoy, has been clearly decelerating since mid-2014, and now requires a sharp reacceleration of 1.0%qoq in 4Q15 to approach the RBA’s 4Q15 inflation forecast.”

    “Moreover, the absence of tradable goods and services inflation (+0.3%qoq and -0.3%yoy) despite the sharp prior fall in the Australian dollar suggests that policy makers have been overly wary of imported inflation pressures.”

    “The breadth of inflationary pressures is at a record low and our alternative measures of underlying momentum are weaker still. All up, it is now likely that the RBA will be downgrading both its inflation and growth forecasts in the November Statement of Monetary Policy. We expect -25bp rate cuts in Nov 2015 and March 2016.”
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