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RBA statement coming up - ANZ

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 6, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ noted the forthcoming even for the day ahead of the US nonfarm Payrolls, that will steal the show for now.

    Key Quotes:

    "The RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) always generates a significant degree of interest. This quarter is no different, with particular focus likely to be on the Bank’s inflation forecasts given the large undershoot in Q3. How this feeds into the Bank’s overall outlook for inflation will be a key part of determining the extent of its easing bias and hence the chances of near term rate cuts."

    "We think the RBA is likely to trim its Dec-15 and Jun-16 forecasts for underlying inflation by 1⁄4ppt, with the risks tilted towards an even larger downgrade for the Jun-16 number. In part this reflects base effects, but also the fact that the broad-based nature of the weakness in price pressures across both tradables and non-tradables evident in the Q3 CPI report suggests a very weak inflationary pulse."

    "For the growth forecasts, we do not expect much change, given Q2 GDP rose broadly in line with the Bank’s expectations. We do think, however, that the Jun- 16 numbers are a little low at 2-3%, especially given that Q3 GDP is shaping up to be fairly solid. We therefore expect this to be upgraded by 1⁄4ppt, although this would not reflect a material change to the Bank’s outlook."

    "There could also be a small upward revision to the unemployment forecasts, given that the starting point for the unemployment rate looks to be 1⁄4ppt higher than the Bank published in the August SoMP. We don’t expect material changes to the unemployment trajectory further out."

    "Overall, we expect the RBA will continue to characterise the outlook as one of moderate growth with ongoing spare capacity. In terms of the risks to the outlook, the Bank is likely to once again emphasise its concerns around the outlook for China, while it could also highlight the risks of a sharper-than- expected improvement in domestic activity given the suggestion in the post- meeting statement that the Bank has a bit more confidence in the prospects for activity."

    "How does this impact on the near-term monetary policy outlook? Downward revisions to inflation will confirm the mild easing bias evident in the RBA’s post-meeting statement yesterday. The near-term policy outlook remains particularly data dependent, with Q4 CPI data set to be the clincher."
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