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Retail investors see flat USD/JPY - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at Nomura, notes that according to the latest Nomura Individual Investor Survey (4-5 April) retail investors’ views on the Japanese equity market weakened for the third month in a row.

    Key Quotes

    “The Nomura I-View Index, which shows retail investors' views on Japanese equity prices over the next three months, fell to 35.4 in April from 45.6 in March, undercutting 50 for the second consecutive month. This is the lowest level since July 2015. The March Eco-watcher survey on the household activity-related future conditions DI also fell to 46.4 from 48.5 from February, suggesting retail investors’ risk sentiment has worsened.

    Japanese investors accelerated foreign investment via toshins in March, but we judge a large part of the investment came from financial institutions, which are struggling with low yields in Japan. Foreign portfolio investment by retail investors is likely to stay limited for the time being, while Japanese policy makers’ stimulus efforts should gradually improve risk sentiment among households.

    Expectations for JPY weakness against USD have weakened among retail investors. The share of retail investors expecting USD/JPY to depreciate over the next three months increased to 50.1% from 49.4% in March. The reference level has declined further to 111.51 from 113.71 in March, but retail investors see USD/JPY remaining at a subdued level for the next few months.

    At the same time, retail investors’ preference for USD among the major currencies has remained high. The preference DI for USD fell to 33.6 in April from 32.8 in March, while the JPY preference DI inched down to 26.0 from 30.0 during the same period. Once household risk sentiment improves, USD is still likely to benefit the most. In contrast, the popularity of the two EM currencies, CNY and BRL, remained low.”
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