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Retails sales preview - What to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been sold-off in a hurry at the start of 2016 with hardly a moment's respite. The Chinese crisis is dominating markets and the data events to some extent have not had the impact they otherwise might have had. However, today's retail sales may draw in a good deal of markets attention before the Yuan fix while the Australian economy's performance will be scrutinised in respect of the RBA's reluctance to cut interest rates.

    Chinese events recap

    The Chinese open was the catalyst yesterday in Asia when stocks (CSI300) were 2% down then 5% down, then trading was halted on the circuit breaker before finally ceased altogether when 7% down. In the case of the Shanghai Composite, it is now 11.7% down year to date. Yesterday was the shortest trading session in China's stock market 25 year history.

    China stocks preview: What to expect today?

    AUD/USD & retails sales

    Retails Sales growth is expected at 0.4% vs 0.5% last when the performance picked up m/m for December. However, today's retail sales may draw in a good deal of markets attention before the Yuan fix while the Australian economy's performance will be scrutinised in respect of the RBA's reluctance to cut interest rates.

    A miss below the consensus will undoubtedly hurt Aussie bulls even further as bets increase for a rate cut from the RBA as soon as February or March meetings, while according to latest interest rate futures pricing from Citigroup, the chances of RBA governor Glenn Stevens cutting rates to 1.75 per cent have slightly increased. For March, the odds have now shot up and are now 28 per cent, compared with 24 per cent on Monday, while for April they've moved from 36 per cent to 44 per cent.

    However, for the RBA to move, there is probably more attention worthy put towards the price of oil at the moment and the inflation outlook, recalling when the RBA's surprised with an initial cut back in February, almost a year ago, with a sharp fall in the oil price and related downward revisions to the inflation outlook.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    Technically, AUD/USD is in a bearish trend with little in the way of technical support below 0.6980/00. The late September lows remain compelling at 0.6940 before 0.6907 the low. 0.7080 is first key resistance while bulls may struggle at 0.7090 and the 20 SMA on the hourly. 0.7120 thereafter and 0.7156.
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