Risk-off at play as Oil keeps falling, BOE Carney’s testimony eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Risk-aversion extends into Asia as oil prices extend their downward spiral and continue to weigh on investors’ sentiment. Therefore, flight to safety emerged the main theme this Tuesday so far, and gold was the best performer among safe-havens, followed by yen.

    Key headlines in Asia

    PBOC's Zhang against further RRR cuts for now

    OPEC officials see oil market begin to start rebalancing - Reuters

    Japan's Amari: Won't comment on extra BOJ easing as markets might react

    Dominating themes in Asia – centered on JPY, AUD and NZD

    An air of caution prevailed in the Asian session today, as the ongoing sell-off in oil markets raised concerns over the Fed’s take on the rate hikes prospects and rattled investors’ confidence once again. Moreover, markets completely ignored China’s efforts to boost liquidity as the Lunar New Year approaches, with the Chinese central bank making the biggest daily injection in three-years. Focus continues to remain on the oil price action and the resultant impact on risk appetite and broader market sentiment.

    Amidst widespread risk-aversion, the yen remains the biggest gainer across the FX board, while the pound emerges the weakest. The USD/JPY pair continues to consolidate on 118 handle, with the risk remaining to the downside, and awaits fresh incentives from the US dataflow due later today. While gold was a clear winner amongst the safe-haven assets, with the prices hitting fresh one-month highs above $ 1113.

    The Antipodeans traded lacklustre with the overall sentiment dented by the overnight oil price declines. The kiwi trades marginally lower around 0.6450 as focus now shifts towards the Fed and RBNZ policy decision. RBNZ is widely expected to keep the rates steady, while the bank may come out with an explicitly easing bias given the recent global turmoil. While the AUD/USD pair also remains subdued near 0.6950, with markets now awaiting the Aus CPI report for further direction.

    On the equities space, the Australian markets remain closed on account of Australia Day holiday, while the Nikkei index leads the decline in the Asian indices, down -2% at 16,700. The Chinese equities also edged lower, with the Shanghai Composite down over 2%, while Shenzhen’s CSI300 index sinks -1.75%.

    Heading into Europe and North America

    Nothing of relevant in terms of the economic events in the EUR calendar this Tuesday, and hence, the main highlight will be the BOE Governor Carney’s testimony on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee, in London.

    Looking towards the NY session, we have a bunch of second liner data viz., the US HPI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Flash Services PMI and Richmond Manufacturing Index. While only the first-tier data in the CB consumer confidence will be closely eyed. Besides, the FOMC will commence its 2-day policy review meeting today, with the outcome due tomorrow.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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