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Risk-on dominates Asia on stimulus hopes, EU flash PMIs eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 22, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The overnight-rebound in oil prices led the extension of the risk-on sentiment into Asia, with Asian equities breathing a sigh of relief. While on the fx space, the common currency was the biggest loser, while the Antipodeans witnessed a minor correction after yesterday’s extensive rally.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Japan lifts nuclear sanctions on Iran

    BOJ considering additional easing - Nikkei

    Oil at $30 is 'irrational' says Saudi Arabia

    Dominating themes in Asia – centered on JPY, AUD and NZD

    A renewed risk-on wave hit Asia this session, as markets cheered stimulus expectations from the ECB and the overnight recovery in oil prices. Hence, the higher yielding assets remains underpinned, although retreated slightly from previous highs on the back of a minor profit-taking spree. While the demand for the safe-havens was squashed as markets preferred to take the yielding advantage amid improving risk conditions.

    The dollar-yen pair held above the hourly 200-SMA support at 117.50 and made several attempts to conquer 118 handle. The Japanese yen was hit by reports of BOJ considering more stimulus at its policy meeting next week, while weaker Japanese manufacturing index also aided the recovery in USD/JPY. While EUR/USD reverted to the red and now looks to test 1.08 handle after the post-ECB recovery halted at 1.0900 levels. ECB Chief Draghi’s surprisingly dovish comments at the press conference yesterday continue to dampen the sentiment around the common currency.

    On the other hand, having staged a solid comeback form multi-month lows on Thursday, the Antipodes are seen consolidating the upside as the recovery in the oil prices falters in Asia, The kiwi retreated from fresh weekly highs of 0.6563 and now struggles to regain the bids, wavering around 0.6530 over the last hours. The AUD/USD pair hovers around 0.70 handle and clings to previous gains, awaiting fresh incentives from US macro data due later in the NY session.

    On the equities space, the Japanese stocks lead the rebound in the Asian stocks, with the Nikkei index rallying over 4.40% to 16,728 on BOJ easing talks. Australia’s S&P/ASX index jumps to 4,914, recording a 1.03% gain into the closing hours. The Chinese equities ditch their Asian counterparts and trade in the red, with the Shanghai Composite down -0.28%, while Shenzhen’s CSI300 index trades -0.26%. Hong Kong’s the Hang Seng bounces 1.44% to 18,810.

    Heading into Europe and North America

    We have an eventful day to close another volatile week; with a raft of flash manufacturing and services PMIs from across the Euro are economies to dominate the EUR calendar. While retail sale and public sector borrowings data from the UK docket will also keep the GBP traders busy.

    The EU flash manufacturing PMI is expected to show a 53.0 reading in Jan, lower than the 53.2 recorded in Dec, while the EU's services sector is expected to show a steady result of 54.2 from the final 54.2 reported in December.

    The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is expected to show a slightly lower 53.0 result compared to the final 53.2 figure recorded in December, while the index for the services sector is also projected to show a downtick to 55.5 from 56.0 booked in Dec.

    The UK retail sales are expected to hit 4.4% on an annual basis, slowing down from solid 5.0% growth booked a month ago.

    Apart from data, we have speeches from ECB President Mario Draghi and Board member Benoît Cœuré at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. While BOE MPC Member Cunliffe is due to speak at the Bruegel Research Institute, in Brussels.

    Looking towards the North American session, there are also plenty of risk events, with the CPI and retail sales data from Canada, while from the US, flash manufacturing PMI and existing home sales data will be reported. Markets expect a strong 9.2% jump in existing new home sales to 5.20 million in December, rebounding from the 10.5% drop seen in November. The factory PMI is set to stay almost flat m/m, and expected to come in at 51.0 in Jan.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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