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Risks are in favour of a topside break in EUR/USD - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 8, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the risks are in favour of a topside break in EUR/USD as markets embrace a more risk averse posture not to mention the weaker underlying USD signal delivered by Chair Yellen’s decidedly dovish speech last week.

    Key Quotes

    “Would prefer to sit out gains beyond 1.15 though and EUR/USD shouldn’t trade north of 1.17. The well-worn theme of EZ-US growth and policy divergence should reassert in due course.

    GBP likely remains a laggard regardless of the risk appetite backdrop, especially as we move closer to the EU membership referendum 23 June. A return to sub-1.40 looks imminent. Even if the polls break sharply toward “Bremain” hard to see GBP unwinding its Brexit premium until the certainty of the vote is out of the way.

    Sensing a deeper pullback for EUR/ CHF may be in order, to lows nearer 1.05/1.06, levels not seen since Aug 2015. Key near term weights are Brexit risks, not to mention signs from our global risk appetite indicator that the run up in risk assets is now very well advanced.”
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