RUB: The key remains political developments - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - Analysts from TD Securities explained that their views on Emerging Markets are changing after remaining bearish during two and a half years. RUB could be attractive according to them, with main risks being politics and oil prices.

    Key Quotes:

    “The RUB story remains in the twilight—carry is attractive, but we neither believe that political risks will disappear nor that oil prices will rebound anytime soon.”

    “We continue to watch USDRUB as nominal carry is attractive at 10.8% annualized, but once vol-adjusted it falls behind that of lower yielding currencies with a score of 0.53. The key remains political developments, with EU sanctions set to expire early in 2016, if not rolled over. The recent campaign against ISIS in Syria has brought Russia closer to Western countries, but we remain sceptical of a swift normalization in relations.

    “Oil prices continue to lead in the interim and suggest that RUB is rich and should trade between 69/70 vs USD with Brent around $45pb. The CBR will continue easing in 2016, but not before the Fed hikes and the CBR tests the market reaction.”

    “On the one hand, EMFX may re-enter a period of high volatility in the near term as the Fed tightens after nearly a decade. On the other hand, there is a clear indication that EMFX is now significantly cheaper than before the taper tantrum. This view is consistent with our expectation from early last year, when we concluded that the credit gap pointed at a substantial EMFX overvaluation.”
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