Russia: CBR undecided on its decision - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that it is a coin toss whether the CBR keeps its Key Rate on hold at 11.00% or whether it cuts by -50 bps.

    Key Quotes

    “This uncertainty is reflected in the Bloomberg survey, with the majority expecting rates to be kept on hold, but a decent 15/36 expecting a cut. Arguing for a cut is the weak economy and the fact that inflation will fall sharply in the coming months due to base effects. However, there are a number of risks that have appeared recently.”

    “Food price inflation will pick up as a result of the sanctions against Turkey. The ruble has been weak, tracking oil downwards. And the Fed is likely to hike rates just a few days after the CBR meeting. So it is possible that the CBR will want to wait to see how things develop and, assuming no major negatives, they can cut in January. As the CBR is keen to get rates lower to help stimulate the economy, it is also possible that they decide to risk it and cut by 50bp.”
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