Russia: CPI inflation likely to fall to 14.9% - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 4, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, notes that the consensus expects Russian November CPI inflation to fall to 14.9% Y/Y from a prior 15.6%.

    Key Quotes

    “Core inflation is expected to fall to 16.0% Y/Y from a prior 16.4%. Given the publication of weekly CPI inflation numbers there is relatively little uncertainty in today’s numbers.”

    “Headline inflation should fall further in the months ahead as the impact of the sharp fall in the ruble around the start of this year drop out of the year-and-year comparisons. We had expected that the resumption of the downward trend in inflation would allow the CBR to cut its key rate by 50 bps at the December board meeting. However, the imposition of sanctions on Turkish food imports will cause Russian CPI inflation to move higher. As a result, the CBR might err on the side of caution and wait to assess the total inflationary impact of the sanctions before deciding to cut.”
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