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Russian ruble slid more than 2% on Monday, touching new 2015 low

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 29, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Russian rouble fell more than 2 per cent yesterday. It touched a new 2015 low of 72.3 versus the dollar on oil price slump. The ruble was at 72.46 against the dollar, falling below 72 for the first time since December 2014. It stood at 79.55 against the euro, which is its lowest value since August.

    The slide in oil prices together with Western sanctions imposed on Moscow for its role in the Ukraine crisis have caused the Russian economy to sink in recent months. Oil prices which fell more than 3 per cent yesterday will continue to weigh on the outlook for Russia's recession-struck economy. Crude prices hit their lowest level since 2009 on global oversupply which is largely the result of OPEC's decision to pump record volumes. Brent crude fell to less than $37 a barrel while the US benchmark WTI fell below $35 per barrel.

    The ruble after losing half of its value in 2014 showed signs of recovery this year as energy prices stabilised. This slight firming of the currency led officials to declare that the worst of the crisis was over. However the recent slide in oil prices on global over-supply raises economic recovery concerns. Former finance minister Alexei Kudrin said "Many experts -- including myself -- think that we had touched bottom that the worst of the crisis had passed. But today we are witnessing a new deterioration."

    According to Russia's Central Bank, the country's GDP will liklely drop to 2 per cent in 2016 if oil prices remain at the current level. Economists are of the opinion that the economy is likely to stay in recession until at least the middle of 2016. Kurdin feels "Next year will be a big challenge. Public spending inevitably will decrease because state revenue will contract”.
    The economy contracted 4 per cent in the year to November, worse than Pctobers GDP figures which showed a 3.7 per cent decline from a year earlier. Weak consumer trends impacted by by a near 10 per cent drop in real wages and high debt repayment costs led to the dismal GDP figures.

    Economic sanctions and sharp decline in crude prices have put pressure on the ruble. This has resulted in inflation to soar to 15 per cent. Lowe oil prices have on the other hand raised deflationary pressures on most importers of the commodity.

    The Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov forecast crude to drop $30 per barrel in 2016 and expects prices to stay that low throughout the year. The Russian government is thus likely to adjust its 2016 budget, which currently has been charted considering oil would be at $50 a barrel and the exchange rate would be 63.3 ruble to the US dollar. Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin stated Russia is currently chalking fresh plans. The new plan would be designed considering the fact that oil price will fluctuate between $40 and $60 until at least 2022.
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