Safe-havens bid amid mixed Asia, UK IP, Central bankers’ eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The safe-havens were back in demand as the sentiment on the Asian markets remained soured, despite stabilizing China stock markets. While lower oil prices and persistent Chinese economic slowdown worries continued to weigh on the commodities-currencies.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Overnight Yuan HIBOR spikes to new record highs

    Oil rout extends, Brent posts new 12-yr lows

    China's Central Bank said to intervene in offshore Yuan market

    Fed's Kaplan: By march there should be enough
    information to make a rate decision

    Dominating themes in Asia – centered on JPY, AUD and NZD

    The ongoing uncertainty in the global markets continues to roil the sentiment across Asia, with the US dollar mixed and the Chinese equities looking to stabilize after the previous slump. Therefore, amidst mixed markets, the safe-haven assets continue to benefit as investors run for cover in times of uncertainty and unrest. The yen regained lost ground and trades higher against the American dollar, sending USD/JPY back lower towards 117.50 levels. While the EUR/USD pair extends the recovery towards 1.09 handle, USD/CHF fails to resist parity, down -0.16%. Gold prices trade modestly flat near $ 1097.

    While among the commodities-currencies, the Aussie remains the weakest around 0.6980, followed by the Canadian dollar. While the NZD/USD pair defends mild gains near 0.6565 region, with the upside capped by tumbling oil prices and the Chinese crisis. Oil prices hover near 12-year lows on the back of persisting China slowdown as well excess supplies worries.

    On the equities space, Asian indices trade mixed, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei losing -2.56% to 17,244 – at four-year lows. Australia’s S&P/ASX index drops to 4,915, recording a -0.33% loss into the closing hours. The Chinese equities attempt a tepid-bounce after a shaky start, with the Shanghai Composite advancing 0.38% while Shenzhen’s CSI300 index up 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rebounds from the lowest levels since June 2013, up 0.35% on the day.

    Heading into Europe and North America

    With the EUR calendar data-thin, the industrial as well as manufacturing production data from the UK will take centre stage. Besides, BOJ Governor Kuroda’s speech during the European hours will be closely heard for any clues on the further easing by the central bank this year.

    The UK industrial output in November is seen flat on a monthly basis after the 0.1% growth reported a month ago, and adding 1.7% on an annual basis, the same as the 1.7% growth in October. Meanwhile, manufacturing production may show slightly more optimistic results, projected to rise 0.1% m/m, following the 0.4% drop in October, and a decline of 0.8% on a yearly basis after a 0.1% drop a month ago.

    Looking ahead, the North American calendar also remains quiet for today, with the only US JOLTS jobs openings data lined up for release. While FOMC member Fischer will speak in a panel discussion titled "Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound" at the Farewell Symposium for Christian Noyer, in Paris. However, the BOE Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the same event is expected to hog the limelight.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “Technically and according to the 1 hour chart, the technical outlook is neutral-to-bearish, given that the price remains stuck within its recent range, but it's also developing below a now bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned flat below their mid-lines, after bouncing from near oversold readings. In the 4 hours chart, however, the price is holding above a mild bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are currently bouncing from their mid-lines, lacking upward potential, but helping in keep the downside limited. Support levels: 1.0845 1.0800 1.0750 Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0960 1.1000.”
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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