SARB to cut by 50 or 25bps? - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 27, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at BBH explained that markets are split regarding the South African Reserve Bank meeting tomorrow. The rand is likely to remain volatile as a result, but it should find support from the improved near-term sentiment on EM.

    Key Quotes:

    "If the SARB goes only 25 bp, there will likely be some rand selling on disappointment that it didn't go 50 bp. However, losses should be limited if this EM bounce persists. Liquidity is clearly a consideration for investors in light of the January “flash crash,” when USD/ZAR made a new record high near 18 during the Asian session. The pair has since retraced that entire flash crash and is trading at levels seen on January 8.

    Despite the EM bounce, the rand remains one of the worst performers in EM and that is likely to continue. Our EM FX model has South Africa near the bottom of our league table with VERY WEAK FUNDAMENTALS. In 2015, ZAR was the third worst performer in EM, down -26% vs. USD and behind only BRL (-33%) and ARS (-35%). This continues in 2016, with ZAR amongst the worst EM performers at -5.6% YTD. This is surpassed only by COP (-5.9%), RUB (-6.0%), MXN (-6.7%), and ARS (-6.8%).

    With this recent bounce in EM FX, USD/ZAR has retraced about 50% of the December-January rise. Retracement objectives from that move come in near 16.36 (50%) and 16.00 (62%). A break below 16 is needed to set up a test of the December 16 low near 14.81. "
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