SARB to hike 25bps or 50bps? - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained that the SARB is a central bank that takes its inflation mandate seriously and whatever action they take at the end of this month will hinge on their latest inflation forecasts and the risks that they see to these.

    Key Quotes:

    "Given the fall in the rand and the rise in food prices since the November MPC, these forecasts can only have moved higher. That said, we think that the new forecasts would be unlikely to justify more than a 25bps hike at the January MPC meeting.

    The SARB has on a number of occasions mentioned the fact that the pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic inflation seems to have fallen in recent years.

    Furthermore, hiking more than 25bps would look like an attempt to directly influence the rand exchange rate, an attempt which we, and probably also the SARB, think is doomed to failure. So, while a 50bps hike cannot entirely be ruled out, we think a 25bps hike is more likely."
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