SEK versus NOK: Intervention talk vs. high inflation - UBS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - NOK/SEK barely edged away from parity, though Tuesday's events should have favored the NOK, according to the UBS analyst team.

    Key Quotes

    “On the one hand, the release of the minutes of the Riksbank's October monetary policy meeting showed rising support for currency intervention. On the other, Norway's inflation rate has hit the Norges Bank's 2.5% target, which all other G10 countries would envy.”

    “While EUR/SEK appears fairly priced, close to our three-month forecast of 9.40, EUR/NOK remains stubbornly high; markets still appear concerned about Norway's longer-term outlook. We believe that economic conditions should stabilize enough for the Norges Bank to become more confident again, pulling EURNOK lower to 8.80 over three months”.

    “Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves stated that Sweden faces the same danger with regard to its currency that Denmark, Switzerland and the Czech Republic have with theirs – that of excessive appreciation, which it seeks to avoid. Extending government bond purchases and pursuing a further rate cut remain the Riksbank's preferred options over the next three months, in our view. But if they fail to boost inflation expectations, currency intervention would become highly probable.”

    “We still expect the Swedish krona to shadow the euro, just as the Riksbank is likely to mirror the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions in coming months. This implies the SEK weakening more against the USD and GBP in the next three months.”
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