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Short GBP/NOK to trade the escalating Brexit risk - SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 23, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at Societe Generale, favours shorting the GBP/NOK pair to trade the escalating Brexit risk amid sideways price action in crude oil.

    Key Quotes

    “We anticipate growing pressure on sterling in the four months to the referendum vote. Sell GBP/NOK spot at 12.18, targeting 11.45 with a stop at 12.70.

    According to our technical analysts, after encountering resistance near the upper limit of a multi-year channel at 13.25/13.35, GBP/NOK has retraced lower. If we drop down to the daily chart, GBP/NOK has violated the upward trendline drawn from May and is evolving within a steeper descending channel. The next major support is at 12.00/11.80, the 61.8% retracement since last May and more importantly lower limit of the larger channel. Weekly RSI has breached a horizontal support suggesting that further declines are likely, and a break below 12.00/11.80 will confirm a deeper correction. Short-term upside, if any, should be capped at the 50 day EMA near 12.60.”
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