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Singapore: In-line October IP- ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Tim Condon, analyst at ING Bank explained that the commodity price crash pushed global manufacturing into a hole in 2015.

    Key Quotes:

    "Base effects will flatter growth rates in 2016 but the feel-good effect will be mitigated by still being in a hole.

    Manufacturing GDP contracted 5.4% YoY in October. It was down 4.6% year-to-date from +2.7% growth in 2014. Electronics, having experienced the smallest negative growth rate swing. Transport engineering, led by – no surprise – the marine and offshore engineering segment, experienced the biggest.

    Barring a further down leg in commodity prices, base effects will reverse the 2015 growth rate declines in economic data like IP, trade and CPIs in 2016. There will be exceptions and Singapore’s marine and offshore engineering segment is one; base effects won’t restore growth to the 15.2% average of 2012-14, in our view. Through October the average index level was 104.1. The last time it was close to this level in October was in 2011 (first figure). A year ago it was 120.3.

    The importance of sectors like marine and offshore engineering, for which the commodity price crash was a persistent hit to both the level of activity and the growth rate, will determine whether the crash altered the economy’s potential growth. We think 1-3% is the new normal for Singapore, down from 2-4%."

    "The global commodity price crash in 2H14-1Q15 pushed global manufacturing into a deep hole in 2015. It will be climbing out of it in 2016 and base year effects will flatter growth rates. But the feel-good effect may be mitigated by the fact that the economy is still in a hole."
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