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Sluggish economies are the new western norm. But we can act to lift the gloom | Gavin Kelly

Discussion in 'Market News' started by Lily, Jan 24, 2016.

  1. Lily

    Lily Forum Member

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    We’re no longer likely to enjoy 2-3% growth, but cheap borrowing should provoke a surge in public investment
    When the Chinese New Year falls next month, it will become the year of the monkey, though, to date, 2016 has without doubt been all about the bear. Stock markets are feverish, the Chinese slowing economy is thought to be weaker than official statistics suggest and there’s widespread jumpiness about the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. From a UK perspective, this downbeat mood doesn’t neatly tally with our domestic scene. Sure, some forecasts have been notched downwards, but growth is steady. Employment is at a record high. Wages are sluggish but rising.

    But look back over the past decade and things start to look different. There has been no surge in GDP as would normally be expected following a deep recession; the decline in pay has been extraordinary; productivity has been comatose. Indeed, 2016’s market volatility has so captured the economic zeitgeist in part because there is already an underlying angst about the medium term growthoutlook for advanced economies – including the UK.

    Demographic forces are powerful, but they aren’t destiny

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