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SNB rate decision preview: What to expect of USD/CHF?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD/CHF pair has retraced almost 61.8% of the spike seen from mid-October to November high ahead of the Swiss National Bank rate decision.

    SNB expected to keep rates unchanged

    The central bank is widely expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%. The target range for three‐month Libor, now at ‐1.25% to ‐0.25%, is also expected to remain unchanged.

    SNB unlikely to follow ECB

    The ECB cut deposit rates by 10 bps last week, however, the move did strengthen CHF. In fact, the EUR/CHF remains stuck in a 250-pip range of 1.10-1.0750. Hence, the Swiss National Bank will be less tempted to keep the rate differential unchanged by lowering its own deposit rate. If the SNB does surprise markets with a rate cut, then the CHF would be offered across the board.

    Jordan to reiterate that CHF is overvalued

    Time and again, SNB’s Jordan and other policymakers have called CHF as overvalued and expressed readiness to intervene. Jordan is likely to keep his view intact today and send out a message that direct intervention in the FX markets remains as the most favoured exchange rate management policy tool at the moment.

    USD/CHF Technical Levels

    The bid tone on the USD recovered somewhat in Asia, due to which the USD/CHF pair ticked higher to 0.9855 levels. An immediate resistance is seen at 0.9875 (Dec 3 low) and 0.9902 (50% of Oct-Nov rally)+0.9907 (50-DMA). A break higher would expose 0.9957 (Oct 28 high), which, if taken out shall see the pair test offers at 1.10 handle. On the other hand, a break below 0.9802 (61.8% of Oct-Nov rally)+0.9801 (100-DMA) would open doors for a drop to multiple daily highs in September around 0.9750, under which a major support is seen at 0.9677 (76.4% of Oct-Nov rally).
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