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Stay short EURGBP into UK employment report - BNP Paribas

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 14, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Bali) - BNP Paribas remains short EURGBP targeting a decline to 0.7000 ahead of the UK employment report at 9.30GMT.

    Key Quotes

    "The GBP has had a disappointing start to the week due to a soft CPI release but we do not think it makes sense to chase GBP lower from here."

    "In contrast to consumer inflation, wages are telling a different story of building price pressures as we expect the 3m/3m ex-bonus measure of compensation to rise to 3.0% y/y, which would be the fastest pace since January 2009. We also see the unemployment rate at a new low of 5.4%."

    "Despite our economists pushing back their expectation for BoE rate lift-off to May from February 2016, there is still plenty of scope for UK front rates to adjust higher in reaction to stronger data as the market does not price a full BoE hike until Q1 2017."

    "STEER TM also signals that EURGBP currently appears overbought, with short-term fair value around 0.7100. Accordingly, we remain short EURGBP targeting a decline to 0.7000."
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