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Stevens preview - what to expect in AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD is consolidated after a day of two way business, losing and regaining the 1hr 200 sma.
    the volatility comes ahead of Stevens who is due to testify before the House Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics in Sydney today.

    AUD/USD price action

    AUD/USD's initial supply from 0.7099 took out stops on the 0.70 handle and a low of 0.6983 was marked. Demand finally drove the price back as the greenback was sold off across the board when the idea of negative rates in the US were laid out on the table again and Gold rallied. Yellen explained that she will not write such a model off although she remains cautiously optimistic about global and US growth.

    However, for the Asian shift today, RBA Stevens is to testify to parliament. There has been strong volatility of late and turmoil in the market and that could be an area where Stevens warns of the negative ramifications for Australia's global trade. At the same time, the fact that AUD has been back to recent highs of 0.7150 will be troublesome for the RBA who are trying to refrain from cutting interest rates. Stevens recently explained that they are vigilant and prepared to act should need be, but perhaps not until the 10-year yields move down through the OCR 2.00% level first? Commodity prices remain fragile and indeed there are deflationary headwinds brewing. Stevens could be a market mover and signs that Stevens is leaning to a more dovish outlook could send the Aussie quite a bit lower on potential interest rate differentials.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    AUD/USD is hovering around the 0.71 handle and within the vicinity of the 200 sma on the hourly chart. Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the short term picture is neutral as the price is currently consolidating a few pips above a flat 20 SMA, while the technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. "In the 4 hours chart, a mild positive tone surges from the technical indicators that aim higher above their mid-lines, as the price advances above 0.7070, the 50% retracement of the latest weekly decline and a flat 20 SMA."

    While RSI on the 4hr is at 41.70, a break to the upside targets R2 at 0.7181 and R3 at 0.7234 that is in the vicinity of the recent high of 0.7242. To the downside, S1 stands at 0.7056, S2 at 0.7003 and R3 at 0.6967.
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