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Strong dollar and tough resistance capping NZD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 2, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD has been a solid performer recovering from Nov lows, but the bird is running into tough resistance vs the descending trend line from October highs within the broader bearish and longer-term trend.

    Fundamentals that are positive for the bird this week so far have been with the dairy prices rising for the first time in almost two months with the GDT index up 3.6% in Fonterra's fortnightly auction. Whole milk powder prices rose 5.3%.

    Central Banks are key in NZD/USD from here

    However, next week's RBNZ meeting comes with a consensus looks for a cut to 2.5% from 2.75% and with the ADP report today from the US, as prelude to the Nonfarm Payrolls, and hawkish support from the likes of Lockhart today, the FOMC meeting could underpin long-term strength in the US dollar, exposing making the upside in the bird a long hard road should there be a continuation of the recovery vs the broader bearish trend.

    Upside bias scenario on FOMC

    That said, how much of a Fed hike has already been priced in is unknown, but the market is very long dollars leading into the meeting. Should there be a rate hike, or not, and the market decides that the Fed will take a long time to normalise rates with infrequent incremental shallow rate rises that could be enough to see a sell-off in an overly long market over the near-medium term with a potential buy the rumour sell the fact outcome of the FOMC meeting, supporting the upside in the bird. Volatility is more certain as markets seek to find a direction. Oil prices could also be a supporting factor, depending on tomorrow's OPEC meeting where supply might be cut driving prices higher.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, NZD/USD targets the 4hr 20 SMA at 0.6610 having been rejected overnight before Nov highs circa 0.6680 resistance through R3 at 0.6677 with offers punishing the bulls from 0.6658 (4hr 9 SMA). RSI on the 1hr time frame is creeping back out of oversold territory and price looks to be consolidative from here.
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