Strong indicators released over the weekend boost Chinese recovery hopes

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 14, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - A slew of economic indicators released on Saturday showed Chinese economy bettered in November. Both industrial production and retail sales grew surprisingly beating expectations. Growth in new-loans was also registered given interest rate cuts and higher government spending boosted consumer sentiment and raised demand for easy credit.

    Retail sales stronger than expected

    China’s record-breaking online shopping festival known as Singles' Day in November helped retail sales to grow 11.2 per cent, more than 11.1 per cent estimated by economists. The worth of goods sold by Alibaba was 50 per cent higher than its sales in 2014.

    China has been trying hard to achieve consumer driven growth. It has been wanting for some time now to bring down the economy’s dependence on manufacturing and infrastructure. Consumption accounted for 60 per cent of the country’s GDP in the first half of 2015, up 5.7 per cent from the first six months of 2014.

    Industrial output and new loans also up in November

    China’s National Bureau of Statistics also reported a rise in the industrial output. Industrial output moved up 6.2 per cent in November, once again beating analysts’ expectation of 5.6 per cent increase on an annual basis. Strong production of automobiles, synthetic fibers and non-ferrous metals during the month led to a healthy industrial output figure.

    New loans and money supply also increased in November surpassing analysts’ forecast in November.

    More stimulus measures required to achieve projected GDP figures

    The central bank had slashed interest rates six times since November 2014 to spur GDP growth which dipped to 6.9 per cent in the July-September quarter. Following the dismal GDP growth, policymakers had stepped up fiscal expenditure sharply since October to increase infrastructure. Despite the government’s earnest efforts, some indicators released recently have disappointed. Data released last week showed China’s exports fell 6.8 per cent in November, marking their fifth consecutive monthly drop.

    This may lead the markets to believe that the government may introduce more stimulus to achieve Chinese President Xi Jinping’s goal for GDP expansion of at least 6.5 per cent over the next five years. "In the next five years, China's development should not just be focused on growth pace, but also growth volume, and, more importantly, growth quality," Xi said. A Bloomberg survey however shows China’s GDP growth rate is expected to remain below 6.5 per cent next year and at 6.3 per cent in 2017. UBS Group economists have expressed some hope adding that stronger policy support and quicker project implementation “could help offset partly the downward pressure”
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