Super Thursday- BoE not expected to hint at rate hike timing

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 4, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Tomorrow the Bank of England will announce a) its decision on interest rates; b) the minutes of the monetary policy committee’s meeting; and c) the quarterly inflation report. There is thus a lot to look forward to on BoE’s Super Thursday.

    BoE likely to keep rates unchanged
    Slowing global growth and turmoil in emerging markets have negatively impacted business and consumer confidence in the UK. Latest Official figures pointed towards a dip in Britain’s third quarter economic growth. a poll of small- and medium-sized (SME) manufacturers showed a fall in their output on account of a drop in both domestic and foreign orders. In the backdrop of this discouraging economic scenario it looks a little impossible that the BoE will raise rates. The BoE is expected to let its record low 0.5% interest rate unchanged.

    Only 2 of the 9 member strong MPC expected to favour tightening
    The minutes of the BoE’s meetings need to be watched out for to know how many members of the nine-strong MPC are in favour of a rate rise. The majority of economists in a Reuters poll forecast only McCafferty will vote for a rise this month. Two members- Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty are expected to vote for an increase. The committee of rate-setters are divided over when is the right time to start raising interest rates which has been kept unchanged for the last eight years.

    Surge in Pound will adversely impact inflation
    Economists are of the opinion that no clear time for rate hike will be mentioned by Carney. The BOE is likely to refrain from establishing a date given the low inflation and the high currency value. The increase in the value of pound will affect consumption and in the process further hurt inflation. The BoE has been constantly struggling to raise inflation figures without much success.

    Carney like Draghi from the ECB is probably waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike rates first to prevent the Pound from appreciating too much
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