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Switching from China, oil is key market driver

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    The markets will remain focused on oil and the volatility we have seen in 2016's continuation of 2014's downtrend from just below $107.50c bbls.

    Today, we are looking at a narrow range between $27.50 and $34.80c bbls and wondering whether a base has been found in the black gold. The key focus remains around supply and whether the cartel, OPEC and non-OPEC member nations can unify to slow down the production and pace of Lower oil prices that continue to take a toll on the major oil producing economies such as Russia, Venezuela, other nations such as Azerbaijan and Nigeria who are already seeking aid from the World Bank and indeed to the soften negative effect it is having on inflation lagging economies such as Japan where higher prices had been aiding to push inflation higher.

    The Saudis are the most reluctant to curb their supply, perhaps to try to instill some discipline among fellow OPEC oil producers? US's shale oil and gas industry was growing and starting to get uncomfortable for the Saudis who are forcing Canada and the US to cut back on production.

    Saudis and Venezuela meet but no outcome

    Oil ministers from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia met over the weekend, but to no avail, despite some positive cooperation between them being reported form after meeting, but without any plans announced to cut production.

    The start to the end of the petrodollar?

    There are growing concerns for the greenback, mostly emanating originally from alternative media and filtering through to the mainstream media of late. One of the weekend wires was Iran wanting payments for its oil in euros instead of US dollars and the roughly 2.9 million barrels a day oil producing nation has started billing new crude sales in euros.

    USD/CAD outlook

    "The last 18 months' price action in USD/CAD yields some useful clues, the period encompassing three strong double-digit rallies (+15/20 big figures) interspersed by a couple rangebound/countertrend episodes lasting about 3-4 months where USD/CAD unwound a good 1/3 of its earlier gains. Those metrics suggest USD/CAD can fall as far as 1.38 and a trade with a broadly consolidative tone for the balance of Q1 and into Q2 before the next leg higher commences," explained analysts at Westpac.
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