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Tactically long USD/Short risk in and out of the Fed – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 16, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at TDS, continue to be constructive on the Fed and remain positioned for a second hike in the middle of this year, but they think the window for risk to perform in the coming weeks after the central bank bonanza is over is much narrower.

    Key Quotes

    “EM data surprises relative to consensus look to be starting to disappoint after months of resiliency, EM rates markets have been complacent in the recent push higher in DM rates and data, while EMFX similarly outperformed.

    We recommend going long USDTRY at 2.8990, targeting 2.9950 and risking 2.8590, with scope to extend that target back to 3.05 to position for a repricing of risk.

    In G10, we think this should feed back into a near-term repricing of the dollar bloc, and would target downside in CADJPY as well as in AUDJPY for those looking to trade the risk theme.”
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