The Fed strikes back - Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 14, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at Rabobank wonder whether the Fed heard that message?

    Key Quotes:

    "Considering we are just two days away from a presumed Fed hike that has been so well telegraphed it might as well be a 30-foot tall tree trunk, there is a remarkable article in the WSJ today from ‘Fed whisperer’ Jon Hilsenrath (who lets us know what the Fed can’t openly say itself)."

    The title is self-explanatory “Fed Officials Worry Interest Rates Will Go Up, Only to Come Back Down”, while the body of the text reads like it was written by me, not him, noting “Any number of factors could force the Fed to reverse course and cut rates all over again: a shock to the US economy from abroad, persistently low inflation, some new financial bubble bursting and slamming the economy, or lost momentum in a business cycle which, at 78 months, is already longer than 29 of the 33 expansions the US economy has experienced since 1854.” And where do we go if that happens, Mr. Hilsenrath? Obviously, in that case the Fed [my emphasis] “will be back at zero very quickly and will have to turn to other measures to boost growth.”

    So, more QE, it seems, which would bring us to where I’ve long been arguing we risked ending up – with everyone wanting to do QE/devalue simultaneously, rather than in sequence, which will cause huge disruption to first financial markets and then physical trade in turn: not so much FX Wars, as “The Empire Strikes Back”."
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

Share This Page

free forex signals