The week ahead and key events - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 6, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Analysts at Nomura explained the week’s Headline Events (all times are GMT).

    Key Quotes:

    "1. US: Consumer Credit (Monday 20:00), Import prices (Friday 13:30) 2. Japan: Q4 2015 GDP (second estimate) (Monday 23:50) 3. China: CPI YoY (Thursday 01:30), Trade Balance, FX Reserves 4. Central banks: BoC (Wednesday 15:00), RBNZ (Wednesday 20:00), ECB (Thursday 12:45), Kuroda speech (Monday 03:40).

    "Next week will be relatively light on U.S. data, with highlights on consumer credit, inventories, and import price data. On import prices, our economists assess that the recent increase in crude oil and depreciation in the broad trade-weighted exchange value of the USD during the month could put upward pressure on import prices in the medium term.

    However, lagged effects of past appreciation of the USD and low prices will likely continue to feed through to overall import prices and, as a result, consensus forecasts a 0.8% m-o-m decline in import prices in February (The Economy Next Week, 4 March 2016).

    In Japan, we expect the second preliminary estimates for real GDP growth in 2015 Q4 will be -1.2% q-o-q annualized (-0.3% q-o-q) versus -1.4% q-o-q annualized (-0.4% q-o-q) in the first set of estimates, where revisions in the second preliminary estimates will be chiefly to reflect capex and inventory investment in light of the FSSCI data. Assuming the data match our expectations, our economists assess that GDP growth will remain negative due to a decline in spending and imports, reflecting weak domestic demand and a fall in exports as a result of weakness in external demand.

    In terms of central banks, we have the ECB meeting on Thursday, and our economists expect the ECB to ease policy again against a backdrop of downward revision to staff projections, a continued deterioration in inflation expectations, and increased downside risks. In particular, they expect at least a 10bps cut, an increase of the APP purchase pace (by €10bn to €70bn per month), additional TLTROs, and further dovish communication (via forward guidance on rates and a discussion and expression of the willingness to cushion the impact of lower negative rates on banks in the future, if necessary) , 3 March 2016).

    We also have the BoC meeting on its interest rate target on Wednesday. At the current level, USD/CAD is slightly overvalued relative to the level of oil prices and rates differentials. This does not mean that USD/CAD cannot decline further, but further declines are unlikely to be sustained in the medium term unless oil prices increase or the yield differentials move further in favor of CAD. We think fiscal stimulus will be enough to allow the BoC to keep rates unchanged this year.

    Last, we have the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday. In our view, last month’s communication reflected a Bank that is gradually preparing for a rate cut. We believe the need for a cut will depend on whether the NZD remains stronger than central bank’s forecast, the passthrough of declines in energy prices to inflation, global growth, and uncertainty remaining high or increasing

    On China FX reserves, we believe headline FX reserves fell by USD36bn to USD3195bn in February, although after adjusting for FX and coupon effects, we estimate a fall of around USD55bn, from around USD96bn in January. The trade surplus should narrow to USD48.5bn in February on the back of a contraction in exports given persistently weak external demand. Our economists expect CPI inflation to rise in February (driven mainly by food prices), while PPI deflation may ease.
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