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The week ahead in G10 FX - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Analysts at Nomura explained the week ahead on the G10's.

    Key Quotes:

    "Next Week’s Headline Events (all times are GMT) 1. US: Producer prices (Wednesday 13:30), Industrial production (Wednesday 14:15), FOMC minutes (Wednesday 19:00), CPI (Friday 13:30) 2. Asia/AU: Japan Q4 2015 GDP (Sunday 23:50), China CPI (Thursday 01:30) and trade balance (Sunday), RBA meeting minutes (Tuesday 00:30) 3. Europe: Draghi’s testimony to Parliament (Monday 14:00), UK inflation (Tuesday 09:30), UK labor market report (Wednesday 09:30)."

    "Key events in the U.S. next week will be around housing, consumer prices, industrial production data, and the FOMC minutes. On industrial production, our economists forecast continuing tepid activity for January. Deteriorating production activity in the manufacturing and mining industries is expected, resulting in a fifth consecutive month of declines in mining activity for January, as the industry continues to deal with low energy prices.

    On the whole, our economists expect industrial production to have risen by 0.3% in January. We expect a rebound in core CPI in January after residual seasonality led to a lower-than-forecast print for December. The lagged effect of a stronger USD and lower energy prices should offset the positive impact from recent labor market tightening (we expect a +2.1% y-o-y gain in core CPI in January). These forecasts are subject to change after the annual revisions to CPI on 17 February (BLS recalculates seasonal factors).

    Last, we expect the FOMC minutes on Wednesday to provide some more clarity on how the Committee thinks recent economic and financial developments might affect their economic outlook and the path of monetary policy. It will be important to note any discussion about the Committee’s expectation for rate hikes this year and the sizable gap with market expectations. Revised language around the FOMC’s long-term strategy will also be worth noting; the new statement notes the FOMC will be “concerned” if inflation deviates “persistently” from its targets and mentions for the first time that the FOMC’s 2% target is symmetric.

    In the UK, we expect CPI inflation for January to rise to 0.4% y-o-y (large base effects from last year’s collapse in commodity prices are only partly offset by the latest declines). It is important to note that the CPI basket is due for its usual reweighting in this release, and therefore there is greater than normal uncertainty about the CPI-RPI basis for January’s data.

    In addition, we have the UK labor market report on Wednesday, and we expect a 4k decline in jobless claims in January and another fall in the unemployment rate in December. No major central bank decisions are expected next week.

    However, we do have ECB president Mario Draghi’s testimony to the European Parliament on Monday, and we expect him to reiterate that it will be necessary to review and possibly reconsider the policy stance at the next meeting in March. Given recent volatility in markets, Mr Draghi will likely try to strike a balance between noting that ECB policy is working, but that downside risks to growth and inflation have increased. We expect him to reiterate his comments that the ECB will not surrender to low inflation and that the risks of acting too late outweigh the risks of acting too early. The ECB Account for the 21 January monetary policy meeting will provide clues on the Council’s appetite for further easing in March, and in particular hints as to whether further easing is likely to be focused more on a lower deposit rate, changes to the APP, or both (as we expect).

    Last, the RBA is expected to release its February meeting minutes on Tuesday, which should provide further insights into the Bank’s consideration of international factors, potential indications of the appropriateness of AUD at these levels, and the likelihood of further easing."
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