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Tough communication challenge for Carney on “Super Thursday” – SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that today is a “Super Thursday” for the Bank of England with the simultaneous publication of the policy decision, MPC minutes and the Inflation Report.

    Key Quotes

    “The bank rate will likely stay at 0.5%. However, the MPC is likely to face a tough communication challenge as its economic forecasts are conditioned on the market rate path that is downward over the course of this year whereas all the communication of the MPC has been to say that the next move in rates will be a hike.

    Inflation Report likely to push back against rate cut expectations

    The challenge the MPC will face in its Inflation Report and MPC minutes will be to present a more dovish view whilst rebutting market pricing of a rate cut risk. The MPC’s forecasts are conditioned on the market rate path and so would appear inconsistent with its rate message that the next move will be a hike. One way to reconcile this inconsistency would be for the MPC to predict a large overshoot of the inflation target at the three-year horizon which would then require a rate increase to bring inflation back to target.”
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