TRY still vulnerable to politics – BAML

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 2, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, the Turkish currency could remain vulnerable to the broader political scenario.

    Key Quotes

    “The strongest sides of Turkey’s investment case have been public finances and medium term growth potential. That strength has been partially counter-balancing the large external imbalances and weakening institutional framework, including the Central Bank of Turkey’s controversial policy”.

    “While our relatively constructive base case for political outlook gives room for improvement in medium-term growth outlook and institutional framework, the delay in market expectations for the first Fed hike gives Turkey extra time to come up with a strategy to address these problems”.

    “General dollar weakness has shaken out much of the short TRY positioning, in our view. There is still some scope for relief if a government can be formed quickly following the elections. Any lasting recovery depends on political stability and more orthodox tightening steps from the CBT, in our view”.
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