UK annual inflation rose 0.1% in Nov; clothing prices a drag

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 15, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Office for National Statistics today reported a rise in annual consumer price inflation. CPI rose 0.1 per cent in November, in tune with expectations of economists and higher than October's -0.1 per cent fall. Core CPI increased to 1.2 per cent from 1.1 per cent in October.

    Month on month inflation stagnated in November. Chris Williamson, chief economist at data firm Markit remarked "UK inflation remained largely absent in November, and looks set to remain weaker for longer than forecasters have recently been expecting”

    Retail price inflation jumped to 1.1 per cent from 0.7 per cent. Housing costs such as mortgage interest payments and council tax, is included in RPI and not in the CPI. Factory gate prices fell a shade more than expected, dropping by 1.5 per cent after a 1.4 per cent fall in October.

    Inflation has moved between plus and minus 0.1 per cent since February on low oil prices. The inflation figures remain well below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. The BoE had last month said that it expected inflation to stay below 1 per cent for the first half of next year. However, since then oil prices have fallen further to hit their lowest price since 2008.

    Factors that weighed on prices

    Oil has been blamed repeatedly for low inflation not only in UK but in other major economies. However, oil alone cannot be blamed for dismal prices. The ONS has also confirmed that impact of lower energy prices on inflation in November has been less compared to the previous months.

    Low wages have also been equally responsible for lower prices. BoE Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik stressed on the need to raise wages. She said the rate cut would happen only when ages have risen significantly. Only higher wages can lift consumer spending and help to stabilize price. Ben Brettell, senior economist at broker Hargreaves Lansdown observed “there are signs that wage growth is flattening out”. Wage growth due tomorrow will likely show pay growth has slowed from 3.0% to 2.5%, Brettell noted.

    Clothing prices weighed on inflation after they fell sharply between October and November. This is a period when prices rise given that people shop before Christmas. These prices were however recorded by the ONS before so-called 'Black Friday' discounts took effect.

    House price inflation fastest since March

    The ONS also reported house price inflation today. House price inflation in October showed the fastest price growth since March. This sector saw a 7.0 per cent annual rise across UK compared with 6.1 per cent rise in September. In London, prices were noted to have risen 7.7 per cent.

    Low rates to continue for some time

    The BoE held rates steady at record low of 0.5 per cent last week. The Carney has not hinted at the time when the central bank will start raising rates. Given the current rate of inflation which remains much below BoE's expectation and the lower wage growth, the BoE can be expected to continue with record low rates till mid 2016 or till later.
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