UK CPI preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 22, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Brexit fears and dollar recovery on Fed rate hike talk pushed the GBP/USD pair below 1.42 levels ahead of the UK consumer price index (CPI) release.

    Focus on core CPI

    The headline figure is seen rebounding 0.4% m/m in February. That means an annualized figure of 0.4%. However, the headline is sensitive to energy (oil) price gyrations, hence a rebound as expected, though welcome news, may not result in GBP rally since oil price recovery in February/March has been priced-in by risk assets.

    Moreover, the Bank of England (BOE) would be more interested to see how the core inflation, which strips volatile food and energy component, did in February. Markets see core CPI unchanged at 1.2% y/y.

    A weaker-than-expected core CPI figure would provide another reason to BOE to delay plans to rate hike. Currently, markets see a greater probability of rate cut in 2016 than a rate hike. Consequently, weaker core figure would result in more losses in Cable. On the other hand, an upbeat headline and core CPI would help Sterling trim losses, but intraday bearish invalidation is seen only above the daily high level of 1.4397 levels.

    GBP/USD Technical Levels

    The currency pair is now trading around 1.43 handle. The immediate hurdle is noted at 1.4338 (38.2% of 1.4053-1.4514), ahead of the resistance at 1.4354 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4514). A violation there would shift risk in favor of a re-test of 1.4376 (symmetrical triangle resistance).

    On the other hand, a break below 1.4283 (50% of 1.4052-1.4514) would expose support levels at 1.4255 (38.2% of 1.3835-1.4514) and 1.42 (psychological level).
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