UK Industrial production preview: What to expect in GBP/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 6, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair is pressured through 1.52 handle and maintains the offered tone from the previous session, following the surprisingly dovish comments from BOE Governor Mark Carney and the disappointing quarterly inflation report. More so, higher bids for the US dollar in wake of increased Dec Fed rate hike bets before the US labour market report, also keeps the cable undermined.

    For the GBP traders, the economic news now in focus is the UK industrial and manufacturing output numbers lined up for release at 09.30GMT.

    Fall in manufacturing output to drag the overall industrial production lower

    The manufacturing output, the main component of the total industrial output, is expected to reverse August’s 0.5% rebound and tick slightly lower to 0.4% in September. While the total industrial production, which includes extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea, is seen declining 0.1% on a m/m, after increasing 0.1% in August.

    The small signs of revival seen in August appear to fade at the end of the third quarter as softer external demand and sterling appreciation weigh on the UK’s industrial sector.

    Earlier this week, manufacturing sector activity in the UK grew at the fastest pace in sixteen months, as reflected by Markit’s manufacturing PMI gauge. The report beat expectations for a fall and instead jumped to 55.5 in October from an upwardly revised 51.8 in September.

    Unexpectedly, the PMI report showed export and domestic orders picking up across all parts of the industry. Hence, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the UK industrial data due to be published today defies market expectations of a slowdown.

    GBP/USD Technical Levels

    The cable is currently hovering below 1.5200 levels, and should the data miss expectations, the prices could drop further towards 1.5160 (Sept 4 Low), below which it could extend losses to 1.5137/38 (Oct6 Low/daily S1). Selling pressure would intensify below the last, dragging the pair towards 1.5105/00 (Sept lows/ psychological levels). On the flip side, if the data surprises on the upside, the prices could swing back higher above 1.52 barrier, with the immediate hurdle placed at 1.5220 (Today’s High), beyond which 1.5244/48 (Oct 5 & 6 High) could be tested.
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