UK retail sales and Norges bank in focus today, BoJ tomorrow – Danske Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 17, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, notes down the key events for today and tomorrow.

    Key Quotes

    “We expect Norges Bank (NB) to leave rates at 0.75% but it has admittedly become a very close call - in our view close to even odds - amid the renewed collapse in the oil price, which could trigger another 25bp 'insurance cut' as it did in December 2014 and September 2015. We expect NB to indicate a very dovish stance by lowering the rate path, signalling a close to 100% probability of a rate cut in March. Markets are pricing in a roughly 50% probability of a 25bp December rate cut, a full 25bp rate cut for the March meeting and an accumulated 40-45bp worth of cuts on a 9-12M horizon (the period where the most easing is priced in).”

    “In terms of data releases, we expect the German IFO expectations to improve slightly and point to steady growth in line with the signals from yesterday's Euro flash PMI.”

    “We expect UK retail sales (ex fuels) to increase 0.3% m/m in November, which is more or less in line with the consensus estimate of 0.4% m/m.”

    “In Sweden, unemployment figures will be released at 9:30 CET.”

    “Finally, note that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) early Friday morning announces its monetary policy decision. We expect BoJ to keep its target for the annual rise in monetary base unchanged at JPY80trl. Anything but an unchanged target would be a surprise to the market.”
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