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UK retail sales preview: What to expect in GBP/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 17, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - GBP/USD is seen trading with size-able losses as we step into the European session, recovering from fresh two-week lows struck at 1.4923 earlier today. The cable remains pressured as investors weigh the possibility of a BOE rate lift-off next year, with the Fed behind us. Moreover, ‘Brexit’-jitters heading into 2016 along with broad based US dollar strength continues to keep the major undermined.

    Meanwhile, attention now shifts to the next risk event for the GBP, the UK Nov retail sales, which will be published at 09.30GMT.

    Retail sales expected to rebound in Nov?

    The UK’s retail volumes are expected to rise 0.5% m/m in Nov compared to a 0.6% negative growth reported in October and rise 3.0% year-on-year following a 3.8% gain reported a month ago. The rebound in the sales is expected on the back of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.

    Analysts at HSBC "This year, we think growth will not be as strong, with less intense discounting and reports of lower footfall than last year. Of course online shopping could be strong but non-store retailing accounts for just 7% of the retail sales basket."

    GBP/USD key levels for today

    Omkar Godbole, Editor and Analyst at FXStreet explains, “Sterling’s turn lower from the 1.5240 marked the continuation of the lower highs formation on the daily chart. An intraday drop to 1.4895 cannot be ruled out today, but it would take a surprisingly weak UK retail sales number to ensure the pair witnesses a daily close below 1.4895, in which case, 1.4739 (Apr 1 low) could be tested.”

    “On the other hand, a rebound from the channel support and a break above 1.5 is likely to be followed by a rally to 1.5113 (23.6% of 1.5819-1.4895) in a next couple of days. A stronger than expected UK retail sales data could see the pair take out 1.5 today itself.”

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