UK: Sub-zero inflation again - BNPP

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 17, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that after UK’s inflation dropped below zero in September for the first time since April, we expect Tuesday’s release to show it remained there in October.

    Key Quotes

    “Within the total, marginally weaker food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices are likely to have offset a modest up-tick in core inflation, to 1.1% y/y from 1.0%. The modest rise in core inflation is expected to come from non-energy industrial goods prices (core goods), which were particularly weak in September. These prices are likely to have fallen more slowly in October, consistent with a moderation in the pace of GBP appreciation which emerged in H2 2014, which should now start to be felt in core goods prices.”

    “Looking further ahead, providing the oil price does not sink significantly further, October is likely to be the low point for UK inflation. Base effects mean the year-on-year rate of decline in the oil price will moderate significantly from December, allowing UK headline inflation to pick up towards the core rate during H1 2016. Core inflation itself should also creep gradually higher in response to the recent pickup in unit labour cost growth.”
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