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Until US data improves, EM rally could persist - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 9, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Emerging Market Currency Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman analyzed the performance of currencies and equities. Among the most relevant events, they mentioned that the Brazilian central bank had a record monthly loss on its swap operations last month.

    Key Quotes:

    “In the EM equity space, Indonesia (+9.1), Singapore (+7.4%), and Russia (+7.2%) have outperformed over the last week, while Qatar (+0.3%), Taiwan (+1.7%), and Czech Republic (+1.7%) have underperformed.”
    “In the EM FX space, IDR (+9.2% vs. USD), RUB (+8.3 vs. USD), and MYR (+6.9% vs. USD) have outperformed over the last week, while PEN (flat vs. USD), PKR (+0.1% vs. USD), and EGP (+0.1% vs. USD) have underperformed.”

    “The impetus for EM’s massive rally has been the change in the US monetary policy outlook. Market participants are pushing Fed lit-off back from December into 2016, and that has fed a massive short-covering rally for commodities, EM assets, and risk in general. We think it’s too early to call, and we will see two more US jobs reports before the December 16 FOMC meeting. But until the US data starts cooperating, this current EM rally could persist for some time.”

    “The Brazilian central bank had a record monthly loss on its FX swap operations in September. According to local news sources, the bank took a R$38.6 bln ($9.9 bln) loss. On the year, the accumulated losses have reached R$108.3 ($27.9 bln). The losses come from the sharp depreciation of the real over the last few months, of course, but are still a relatively small number compared with the country’s FX reserves which stand at just over $370 bln.”
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