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US: Consumer confidence decline is a caution flag for the FED – Wells Fargo

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Wells Fargo today’s decline in the data of November’s consumer confidence is a caution flag for the Federal Reserve.

    Key Quotes:

    “Consumer confidence fell hard in November, with the overall index declining 8.7 points to its lowest level since July 2014. The drop was evident in both the present situation index, which fell 6.5 points, and the expectations series, which tumbled 10.1 points to 78.6, marking the lowest level since February 2014. The decline appears to have been driven by economic concerns.”

    “November’s drop in consumer confidence is a caution flag for the Fed. Consumer confidence is fickle on a monthly basis and 90.4 still represents a level that is consistent with solid gains in consumer spending and overall growth. The deterioration in the employment conditions, which account for 40 percent of the Consumer Confidence index, are concerning.

    “The jobs are hard to get series has a fairly strong correlation with the unemployment rate and the most recent increase would suggest that the slide in the jobless rate may slow a bit or even possibly reverse a notch or two. That is totally inconsistent with the weekly unemployment claims data, however, including the data for the November survey week.”

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