US consumer confidence decline starting to look like a trend - ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, the latest reading on the University of Michigan showed a decline that is beginning to look like a trend and it makes a June rate hike by the Fed more difficult to see.

    Key Quotes:

    “Expectations for a rise in the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment were dashed by a fall - this is beginning to look like a trend”.

    “Although the current conditions index did not fall by too much, the expectations component, which has a decent correlation with real personal spending growth, fell more sharply, falling to 79.6 from 81.5 (current conditions only fell 0.2 points to 105.4 and the headline index was down to 89.7 from 91.0).”

    “Following a very weak first quarter, what worries us about this release is that it is giving us an early heads-up that the second quarter has also got off to a bad start. With an April rate hike from the Fed looking totally off the menu, this is also making even a June hike look difficult. The data will have to start turning up soon for us to even consider moving our 3Q16 rate hike forward. At this stage, there is no reason to consider doing so.”
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