US CPI: It’s about core inflation - Wells Fargo

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 19, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    According to analysts from Wells Fargo, the most relevant number from today’s US CPI report from January was the gain in core CPI.

    Key Quotes:

    “On top of an upward revision to December’s performance, the core CPI increased a stronger-than-expected 0.3 percent in January, marking the largest monthly gain in more than four years. Equally as impressive was the breadth of gains seen throughout the core component–an important signal to Fed officials waiting to see if domestic price pressures are building outside of the strength of shelter.”

    “On a three-month annualized basis, core CPI inflation is running at a 2.5 percent pace, the strongest rate since September 2011. Year-over-year, core CPI inflation stands at a 2.2 percent pace, the highest reading since June 2012.”

    “The Fed continues to characterize the ongoing slide in commodity prices as having a “transitory” impact on headline inflation. With core inflation firming as evidenced in today’s report, the Fed believes headline inflation will gradually rise higher over the course of the year as the negative impacts from energy prices and the U.S. dollar wane.”

    “Assuming our outlook unfolds for modest GDP growth, further progress towards full employment and this uptrend in CPI inflation begins to be corroborated in the PCE deflators, we believe the Fed will have the evidence needed to consider additional rate increases in the second half of the year.”
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