US CPI preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 16, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    The EUR/USD pair is trading on a back foot around 1.1080 levels as investors consider the possibility of Fed talking up rate hike bets.

    One of the major data that scores high on Fed’s watch list is the monthly inflation figure. Though the Fed tracks core personal consumption expenditure (pce), the CPI index is on the watch list as well. The inflation data for the month of February is due for release ahead of the Fed rate decision.

    Will CPI matter ahead of Fed?

    Traders could look through headline CPI figure as oil prices are on the rise. Fed moved rates in December, when oil prices were falling sharply. Consequently, a weaker CPI may not result in sharp USD weakness, given the oil prices are pointing northwards and the investors are worried about Fed coming out hawkish later today.

    Hence, a weaker-than-expected CPI/core CPI may result in minor bout of selling in the USD, but overall the currency may maintain the bid tone heading into the rate decision.

    On the other hand, a higher CPI may add to hawkish expectations and strengthen USD, but again caution ahead of FOMC rate decision could keep traders away from making huge bets on the USD.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    A break above immediate hurdle seen at 1.1123 (5-DMA)) would expose 1.1173 (23.6% of 1.0517-1.1376), which if toppled could see prices re-test 1.1218 (Mar 10 high).

    On the other hand, a violation of immediate support at 1.1064 (rising trend line level) could see prices drift lower to 1.1048-1.1045 (38.2% of 1.0517-1.1376 + 200-DMA). A break lower would expose 1.10 handle.

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