US dollar firmer although EUR/USD upside risk remains

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 7, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - After the post ECB meeting, when Draghi jawboned the euro lower to end the week and cool the single currency down a bit, EUR/USD is oscillating in a 20 pip range around mixed commentary from Fed's Bullard calling out the Fed's poor judgment in respect to inflation and saying that forecasts are unhinged while at the same time bullish on the US jobs market.

    US dollar firmer

    At the same time, the greenback is firmer across the board on FOMC expectations in the market predicting lift-off in December now that the key data has stacked up towards making the foundations an appropriate time to hike rates. Oil has also collapsed to the lowest point since 2009, supporting the greenback.

    Goldman Sachs forecasts: "We revise our forecast for EUR/$ to 1.07, 1.05 and 1.00 in 3, 6 and 12 months."

    EUR/USD levels

    There is a very mixed outlook in the near and medium term for EUR/USD. Technically, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested that there is scope for a further advance to the 1.1034 200 day ma and even the 1.1087/97, September low and 28th October high. Meanwhile, there is a strong looking level of support on pull backs at 1.06 on the wide ahead of 1.0523 recent low. More immediate, 1.0698 where the 20 day meets the 9 DMA.
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