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US dollar unwound, EUR/USD in a new range

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD has been on the march again while the US dollar remains in the hands of the bears, sold-off to new heights on continued unraveling while markets fear the worst.

    EUR/USD jumped up to reach the 1.12 handle as investors panic before the key nonfarm payrolls event tomorrow. But with 2016 starting out on a very bad foot, analysts are starting to look beyond the jobs data and looking at the whole economy for signs that the US might not be in as good a position as portrayed by the Fed, with Yellen beating the drum slightly off-key.

    US dollar tanking on worsening outlook

    Manufacturing is a small part of the US economy, but that in itself is worrisome, but nevertheless, the US could be described as being in an industrial recession. Elsewhere, the picture is not quite as bad, but GDP Q4 at 0.7% estimates while jobs for the quarter printed 200k more than expected by the time the data was revised for October and November is quite dubious and raises alarms.

    The jobs data is a lagging indicator, and while data worsens elsewhere, perhaps the jobs numbers are the next to start to suffer and would leave the Fed exposed in a tight corner, potentially not able to hike again in 2016, or worse still, the dollar could collapse should rates need to turn negative.

    US data recap

    For today's data, Valeria Bednarik explained, "The weekly unemployment claims resulted at 285K for the week ending Jan 29, worse than the expected 280K. Unit labor cost improved during the last quarter of 2015, up by 4.5% against expectations of a 3.9% advance, but nonfarm productivity during the same period shrank by 3.0%. Finally, further signs of manufacturing weakness came with the release of Factory Orders for December, down by 2.9% compared to the previous month."

    Nonfarm Payrolls preview

    EUR/USD levels

    Valeria Bednarik, explained, "The 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but consolidate alongside with price, now horizontals near overbought levels. In the same chart, the 20 SMA maintains a sharp upward slope well below the current level, all of which maintains the latest bullish trend alive. Should the price extend beyond 1.1240, and end the week above it, there's room for additional gains up to 1.1460, a major long-term resistance during the upcoming week."

    In other levels, the 200 dma at 1.1055 was blown away and means we are potentially based between 1.1000 now and further upside potential that reveals 1.1495 the October high and on a full on recovery, 1.1713 are the August highs.
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